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215 x 140 mm, 50 pp
Chinese, 1995/01
ISBN: 978-962-441-046-4
Price:US$4.50


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政綱與選舉
一九九四年香港區議會選舉的迴歸分析
孫同文, 王家英
HKIAPS, Occasional Paper Series
Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, CUHK

「政策取向」對於選民投票行為的影響力,一直是選舉研究的焦點,但是,在競選的雙向政治溝通過程中佔主導地位的候選人,如何設計政綱以贏取選舉則比較少為學者所關注。本文的分析架構強調候選人是具有「策略眼光的競選者」,他們利用競選政綱的「引爆作用」,將候選人的政策立場與個人形象相互結合,從而激起選民的認同而贏得選舉。香港一九九四年區議會選舉的實證資料顯示,政綱有地區和選區的差異性,而當選者較落選者傾向強調相對具體可行的政策。運用迴歸分析的結果亦指出,除了「選區候選人數」和「現任議員」這兩項因素之外,各選區因其環境的迥異,不同的政綱指標在候選人得票率上扮演了關鍵的角色。

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